One of musicians' most common claims during consulting calls is they've "just written the song of the summer." After creating this potential hit, they want to know the optimal release timing to maximize their chances of earning the coveted song of summer crown—that unofficial title most discussed by music commentators online.

Throughout history, some tracks clearly missed their opportunity by releasing too late in the season. However, in today's landscape where TikTok regularly resurfaces older releases and popularizes them when the moment feels right, the traditional timing rules have become significantly more complex.

Is Music Seasonal?

One thought I've had recently is how songs on TikTok often mature into their virality and blossom in the season they feel more emotionally connected to. Common examples include Lola Young's "Messy" releasing before summer yet going viral around November (we'll cover this song’s rise in next week's newsletter, so subscribe by hitting the button below). Julia Wolf's lonely love song "In My Room" saw a similar spring release but truly resonated during winter's cold, seasonal depression (as we covered in the newsletter last issue). This pattern repeats with songs that gain traction on short-form videos - they often find their audience when the emotional timing feels right. Sam Austins' "Seasons" was literally named for this concept and saw a spring release that peaked as the leaves turned (we covered it here).

Music Is Seasonal

Summer has a distinct sound. It's hard to deny this fact after reviewing the evidence. Good vibes, fun, and optimism consistently define successful summer anthems. Breakup songs, depressive themes, and introspective ballads rarely make the cut. Epic key changes are notably absent from the summer hit formula.

If your song fits the "song of the summer" vibe, timing the release strategically becomes crucial. The discourse often highlights songs that peaked too early in spring, missing the summer momentum, or arrived too late to become part of summer memories. Missing the 4th of July BBQ window represents a significant missed opportunity. Let's examine what we can learn from successful timing strategies.

Method

One challenge in identifying the song of the summer is widespread disagreement among critics and fans. To establish some consensus, I examined five major news sources for each year and selected the three tracks that appeared most consistently. When faced with contested choices, I used my own judgment based on streaming data to determine which songs received the most plays during these disputes. I started this analysis in 2015 when the streaming era began to fully flourish.

An important factor to consider is that in today's earworm-driven music promotion landscape, a song's release date matters less than when it begins gaining significant public attention. Many songs were released months or even years before their "Song of the Summer" moment. The critical factor appears to be when they start rapidly rising in the public consciousness and reaching peak exposure. If this surge happens during summer months, it typically determines their eligibility for this category. I've focused on this momentum rather than release dates, though I've outlined below how many songs were popularized long after their initial release. For simplicity, I've rounded release dates to two-week intervals (either the 1st or 15th of each month) to approximate timing patterns. Let's examine the findings.

The Top Three Songs Of The Summer By Year (As analysed by MMT)

2015:

1. "Cheerleader" by OMI

2. "Uptown Funk" by Mark Ronson featuring Bruno Mars

3. "Can't Feel My Face" by The Weeknd

2016:

1. "One Dance" by Drake featuring WizKid and Kyla

2. "Cheap Thrills" by Sia featuring Sean Paul

3. "This Is What You Came For" by Calvin Harris featuring Rihanna 

2017:

1. "Despacito (Remix)" by Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee featuring Justin Bieber

2. "Shape of You" by Ed Sheeran

3. "That's What I Like" by Bruno Mars 

2018

1. "In My Feelings" by Drake

2. "I Like It" by Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin

3. "Girls Like You" by Maroon 5 featuring Cardi B

2019

1. "Old Town Road" – Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus

2. "Bad Guy" – Billie Eilish

3. "Señorita" – Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello

2020

1. "Rockstar" by DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch

2. "Blinding Lights" by The Weeknd

3. "Rockstar" by DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch

2021:

1. "Good 4 U" by Olivia Rodrigo

2. "Butter" by BTS

3. "Stay" by The Kid LAROI and Justin Bieber 

2022

1. "As It Was" by Harry Styles

2. Heat Waves" – Glass Animals

3. "First Class" – Jack Harlow

2023

1. "Cruel Summer" by Taylor Swift

2. "Fast Car" by Luke Combs

3. "Flowers" by Miley Cyrus

2024

1. "I Had Some Help" by Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen

2. "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey

3. “Espresso” Sabrina Carpenter

When Were They Released?

Four distinct models emerge for securing the coveted "Song Of The Summer" title:

First, established artists like Drake, The Weeknd and Sia release tracks in winter that enjoy the "nine-month run" phenomenon. These mega-hits remain embedded in playlists and radio rotations for pregnancy-length durations. While some receive targeted radio promotion closer to summer, others simply maintain cultural relevance long enough to become summer memory soundtracks.

Second, the slow-growth trajectory exemplified by Glass Animals' "Heat Waves" and Taylor Swift's "Cruel Summer" shows songs bubbling under mainstream awareness before finding their moment. "Cheerleader" similarly climbed for multiple years before perfectly aligning with summer dance party vibes. TikTok's influence cannot be understated here—the platform elevates songs when their emotional season arrives and a tour like Eras clearly gave “Cruel Summer” a lift, while UGC TikTok trends had their biggest moment with Glass Animals.

Third, megastars like Justin Bieber and Drake can successfully release mid-July tracks that become massive hits despite the summer season being half over. Their star power and precisely calibrated summer vibes overcome the timing disadvantage, but there was no evidence of this working for anyone but the top artists in the world.

The predominant fourth model involves releasing between April 1 and June 1, with April 15 proving statistically most successful (coincidentally both Tax Day and this article's publication date). Mid-May releases show nearly identical success rates, with early May following closely behind.

The data ultimately reveals that while targeting the April-to-early-June window optimizes summer memory-making opportunities, many breakthrough summer anthems begin their journey during colder months, gradually finding their place in the seasonal soundtrack.